On October 2, 2025, Italy’s main business lobby Confindustria cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 1.2%, citing U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions as drags on exports and investment.

GDP forecasts predict economic expansion based on trends like trade and consumer spending; Italy, a manufacturing hub for fashion and machinery, is vulnerable to tariffs (import taxes) that make its goods pricier abroad, compounded by wars disrupting energy supplies and slowing EU demand.

This reduces optimism for the FTSE MIB (Financial Times Stock Exchange Milano Indice di Borsa is the primary benchmark stock market index for the Borsa Italiana, the Italian national stock exchange), raising deficit concerns to 4% of GDP and pressuring Meloni’s reforms for faster EU fund absorption; it hits exporters like Eni hardest, benefiting German rivals in autos, but could spur domestic tourism booms (up 10% pre-2026 Olympics), aiding overall recovery if investments rebound.